No Assurances: Lawson's Mexico Recovery Leaves His 2027 Racing Bulls Seat in Limbo

Liam Lawson drove from 22nd on the grid to seventh at the Mexico City Grand Prix on Sunday, then admitted he has been given no assurance that he will keep his Racing Bulls seat in 2027. Speaking to Sky Sports F1, the New Zealander said nothing had been promised for next season. With four rounds left, the most productive driver outside Formula 1’s four leading teams is still waiting to learn whether he has a future in the sport.

Fifteen places from the back in Mexico City

The raw numbers from Mexico are emphatic. Lawson started last of the 22 cars and finished seventh, a gain of 15 places that no one else in the field came close to matching. Ryo Hirakawa’s climb from 18th to 10th for Haas was the next-best recovery among the points scorers, and Gabriel Bortoleto’s run from 13th to eighth for Audi was impressive in its own right. Lawson’s afternoon was in a different category.

Ahead of him, the race belonged to the front-running teams. Max Verstappen won from fifth, Lewis Hamilton converted pole into second, and Andrea Kimi Antonelli took third to extend a championship lead that now stands at 119 points. Behind those three came Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris and George Russell. Lawson’s seventh place was therefore the best result available to anyone outside Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull, and he took it from the back row.

It also came on a day when Racing Bulls needed it. Arvid Lindblad had qualified an excellent eighth but retired, which left Lawson’s six points as the team’s entire haul. In a midfield where a single top-10 finish can shift a constructors’ position, that matters. Racing Bulls sit fifth in the standings on 108 points, 39 clear of Alpine. That cushion is worth real prize money, and Lawson has done most of the work to build it.

Why “no assurance” is the default at Red Bull

The admission will surprise newer followers more than seasoned ones. Red Bull has never run its second team as a place for drivers to settle. The junior outfit exists to test young talent in Formula 1 conditions and then either promote it or replace it. Contracts are short, decisions are taken late, and the people making them in Milton Keynes look at the whole stable rather than at any single seat.

Lawson knows this better than most. He made his debut in 2023 as a stand-in for the injured Daniel Ricciardo, returned for the final six rounds of 2024 when Ricciardo was dropped, and was then promoted to the senior team for 2025. That promotion lasted two Grands Prix. After Australia and China he was sent back to Racing Bulls, and Yuki Tsunoda took his place. Few drivers have had their standing in the system revised so quickly in both directions.

The precedents are familiar. Pierre Gasly was demoted from Red Bull midway through 2019. Alexander Albon lost his seat at the end of 2020. Nyck de Vries was dropped barely halfway into his debut season in 2023. Tsunoda, after years of service, ended 2025 without a race seat. The pattern is consistent: Red Bull rarely gives much weight to loyalty or accumulated experience, and it reserves the right to keep its options open until the last moment.

That approach has produced Sebastian Vettel and Verstappen, so it is hard to argue that it fails outright. Its cost is that drivers who have already proved they belong in Formula 1 can be treated as placeholders. Lawson’s position is the clearest illustration of that cost on the current grid.

Lawson’s numbers against the rest of the stable

The championship table makes the case for Lawson with unusual clarity. He is ninth in the drivers’ standings on 83 points, and every driver ahead of him races for Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren or Red Bull. The next-best driver from the rest of the field is Gasly, 10th on 42 points for Alpine. Lawson has scored almost twice as many.

Within the Red Bull family, the comparison is just as revealing:

Driver	Team	Championship position	Points
Max Verstappen	Red Bull	2nd	261
Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	8th	107
Liam Lawson	Racing Bulls	9th	83
Arvid Lindblad	Racing Bulls	11th	38

Isack Hadjar, in the senior car, leads Lawson by only 24 points. In Mexico, Hadjar started seventh and finished ninth, while Lawson started 15 places further back and finished two places ahead of him. One race proves little, and Hadjar is in his first season at the senior team alongside the most demanding team-mate in the sport. Even so, the gap between the two is far smaller than the difference between their cars should allow. Red Bull sit third in the constructors’ championship on 382 points, only 17 ahead of McLaren, and most of that total comes from Verstappen.

Lindblad’s season also deserves fair treatment. He is a rookie, and qualifying eighth in Mexico showed his raw speed. But Lawson leads him by 45 points, and the job of an experienced team leader is to set a benchmark the newcomer has to reach. Lawson has done that.

There is an obvious tension here. If Red Bull’s thinking for 2027 includes promoting a junior from Formula 2 or reshuffling the senior team, the seat most likely to become available is the one occupied by the driver who has done least wrong. Red Bull’s system has long been willing to make that kind of decision.

The value of a driver who has already been through the system

The case for keeping Lawson rests on more than points. He has been dropped from a top seat, absorbed the blow in public and rebuilt his reputation with steady results in the car Red Bull gave him. That resilience counts for something when the regulations are new and teams need dependable feedback, and when a midfield constructors’ position can be won or lost on whether a driver brings the car home in the points.

He is also a useful yardstick. Red Bull needs a reliable measure against which to judge Lindblad and whoever follows him. A driver in his fourth season, partial or full, who has raced the senior car and knows the organisation’s methods, gives the team that measure. Replacing him with another rookie would leave Racing Bulls with two unknowns and no fixed reference point, a situation that has cost the team ground in seasons past.

The counter-argument is that Lawson’s ceiling has already been judged once, and Red Bull rarely revises such judgements. The 2025 demotion was harsh, but it reflected a view that he was not ready to partner Verstappen. On the evidence of 2026 he is a strong midfield driver. Whether Red Bull sees a future senior-team driver in him, or only a solid Racing Bulls one, will decide whether the organisation wants to keep investing in him.

There is also the market beyond Red Bull to consider. Gasly, Albon and Carlos Sainz all left the Red Bull system and built long careers elsewhere. Lawson’s results this season would make him a credible candidate for any midfield team that loses a driver. If Red Bull leaves the question unanswered for too long, it risks repeating an old mistake, only this time with a rival benefiting from the driver it let go.

The next test comes this weekend at Interlagos, followed by three more rounds. Lawson cannot do much more than he did in Mexico, and that is the uncomfortable point. On the current evidence he has earned another season with Racing Bulls, and the team’s fifth place in the constructors’ championship depends on him more than on anyone else. If Red Bull still lets him go, the decision will say more about the organisation’s habits than about the driver.