Antonelli Can Clinch the 2026 Title in Mexico as Pérez Reaches 300 Starts

Andrea Kimi Antonelli can clinch the 2026 drivers’ championship at Sunday’s Mexico City Grand Prix, where he arrives at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez with a 123-point lead. His win from pole in Austin on 25 October was his ninth of the season, and it stretched an already commanding lead to the point where only arithmetic stands between him and the title. Behind him, four drivers are separated by nine points in the fight for second, and Sergio Pérez will start his 300th grand prix in front of his home crowd.

The arithmetic of a Mexico coronation

Once Mexico is done, four grands prix will remain, worth a maximum of 100 points to any single driver. If drivers finish level on points, the title goes to the one with more wins. Antonelli has nine. George Russell has three, and even if he won all five remaining races he would reach only eight. No other rival can reach nine either. So Antonelli simply needs to leave Mexico City at least 100 points clear of everyone.

From his current position, that breaks down neatly:

• Ninth or better: champion, whatever anyone else does.
• Tenth: champion unless Russell wins.
• Outside the points: champion unless Russell or Lewis Hamilton wins.

Max Verstappen (129 behind) and Charles Leclerc (132 behind) cannot stop him this weekend, even if Antonelli scores nothing and one of them wins. The only real danger is a weekend in which Antonelli retires or finishes outside the top 10 while one of the two drivers just behind him takes victory.

The title would make him, at 20, the youngest world champion in the sport’s history, comfortably younger than Sebastian Vettel was when he set the record at 23 in 2010. It would also come in only his second season. The questions have already started: Antonelli has been asked whether he would carry the number one on his Mercedes next year. That he is being asked at all says everything about how the paddock now views the remaining rounds.

Mercedes will play this conservatively, and they should. Nothing about the championship requires Antonelli to win in Mexico, and the team’s priority will be a clean weekend: tidy qualifying, a safe first lap and points on the board. A driver who has won nine races this season doesn’t need to prove anything on Sunday.

What Hamilton’s 2017 title tells Antonelli

Mexico has crowned champions before, and not always gloriously. On this weekend in 2017, Hamilton clinched his fourth title despite a miserable afternoon. Lap-one contact with Vettel left him with a puncture and at the back of the field, and he recovered only to ninth. It was enough: four titles, level with the rival he had just tangled with. A year later he sealed his fifth in Mexico City as well, finishing fourth.

The 2017 race is the most useful precedent for Antonelli because of where the danger lies. The run from the grid to Turn 1 is one of the longest on the calendar, which means slipstreaming, three-wide braking and a high chance of contact. At around 2,200 metres above sea level, the thin air cuts downforce and cooling, so cars slide more and run hotter, and drivers stuck in traffic suffer for it.

Antonelli’s task is, in essence, the one Hamilton faced in 2017: survive the first corner. Ninth was enough nine years ago, and it would be enough again. A champion settling for ninth may lack romance, but titles are rarely won with style in their final act.

Russell’s ‘rubbish’ afternoon and the Mercedes contrast

The weekend’s most revealing comment came from the other side of the Mercedes garage. Russell described his own pace in Austin as “rubbish” after starting sixth and finishing eighth, while his team-mate won from pole in the same car. He said he hoped the team could find answers before Mexico.

That gap is the puzzle. Mercedes have won 12 grands prix this season and lead the constructors’ championship by 133 points, so the car is not the problem in any general sense. When one driver dominates and the other finishes eighth, the explanation usually lies in set-up direction, tyre preparation or a specific weakness that one driver tolerates better than the other. Russell, unlike some of his rivals, has rarely struggled to explain his own performance, which makes his frustration more telling.

Second place and the 2027 pecking order

Russell is second in the standings on 242 points, a single point ahead of Hamilton. A Mercedes one-two in the drivers’ championship would be a fitting statement for the team’s season, and Russell’s reputation would benefit from finishing as runner-up rather than fourth or fifth. There is also a team dynamic at stake. Russell arrived at Mercedes as Hamilton’s heir and now finds a younger team-mate running away with the title. How he responds over the final five rounds will shape how Mercedes approach 2027.

Russell’s season deserves better than to fade into the background of Antonelli’s. Mercedes would be wise to give his side of the garage every resource this weekend.

Four drivers, nine points: the fight for second

With the title nearly settled, the most compelling contest in the final five rounds is the one behind Antonelli.

Position	Driver	Team	Points	Gap to second
2	George Russell	Mercedes	242	—
3	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	241	1
4	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	236	6
5	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	233	9

Ferrari left Austin encouraged. Leclerc climbed from fourth to second and Hamilton from fifth to fourth, which points to race pace stronger than their qualifying form. If that pattern holds, both Ferraris will gain on Russell over a race distance even when they start behind him.

Verstappen comes to Mexico with only two wins this season, but his third place in Austin kept him six points off second. Mexico City has been his most reliable hunting ground: he won here in 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2023, more than any other driver. The altitude has historically suited Red Bull’s cars, and the long straights reward a car that is efficient in a straight line. If anyone is going to deny both Russell and Hamilton the win that could delay Antonelli’s coronation, Verstappen is the likeliest candidate. His victory would hand Antonelli the title even if Antonelli failed to score.

Lando Norris won this race last year and sits sixth on 211 points, 22 behind Leclerc. He is not out of the fight for second, but he needs a run of results like his drive from eighth to fifth in Austin, only higher up the order.

My view is that Hamilton is best placed. Ferrari’s race pace is trending upwards, his racecraft at circuits with heavy tyre degradation remains first-rate, and finishing runner-up in his second season in red would be a solid answer to the scepticism that followed his move.

Red Bull and McLaren, level on 355

The constructors’ title belongs to Mercedes in all but name. Mexico could settle that too, but only just: Mercedes need to gain 39 points on Ferrari this weekend, which means a Mercedes one-two with Ferrari scoring no more than four points between them. Given Ferrari’s form in Austin, the title is far more likely to be confirmed later.

The more interesting contest is for third. Red Bull and McLaren are level on 355 points, both with two wins. Austin went Red Bull’s way, 23 points to 16, as Verstappen and Isack Hadjar finished third and sixth while Norris and Oscar Piastri took fifth and seventh.

The two teams have taken different routes to the same total. McLaren’s points are more evenly shared: Norris has 211 and Piastri 144. Red Bull rely more on Verstappen’s 236, with Hadjar contributing 105. Hadjar has been a capable second driver, and third on the grid in Austin was a good result, but he slipped to sixth in the race. Over five rounds, McLaren’s balance should be worth more than Red Bull’s dependence on one driver, unless Verstappen starts winning regularly.

Ricciardo’s exit and the Verstappen question

Motorsport.com has looked back this week at Daniel Ricciardo’s decision in 2018 to leave Red Bull for Renault, at a time when he was among the most highly rated drivers in the paddock. Part of the logic then was a sense that the team was increasingly built around Verstappen. Eight years later, the question of how Red Bull balance a car tuned to one driver’s preferences with a team-mate’s needs has not gone away. Hadjar’s progress in the final rounds may decide where Red Bull finish this championship.

Pérez’s 300th start, at home, in a Cadillac still chasing a point

Pérez will become only the seventh driver to start 300 grands prix, joining Michael Schumacher, Rubens Barrichello, Jenson Button, Kimi Räikkönen, Fernando Alonso and Hamilton. For a driver whose career took in Sauber, McLaren, Force India, Racing Point and Red Bull before Cadillac, it is a remarkable record of durability. It also reflects his value to every team that has employed him: he is consistent, good with his tyres and, on his best days, a race winner.

Cadillac are marking the occasion. Pérez has already given a show run in Mexico City in a car from F1: The Movie, and General Motors president Mark Reuss has said the company feels honoured to have him in the team. A celebration is planned for race weekend.

The sporting reality is harder. Cadillac are the only team without a point this season, and Austin was typical: Pérez finished 19th and lapped, while Valtteri Bottas retired. For a new team, a scoreless first season would not be shameful, especially given the regulation reset. Pérez was signed for exactly this purpose, bringing experience, feedback and a calm head while the team builds its foundations.

Mexico has rarely been kind to him. Third place, first achieved in 2021, remains his best home result, and his recent visits brought a first-lap exit in 2023 and a difficult weekend in 2024. A points finish on Sunday would require attrition well beyond the norm. Even so, the crowd’s reception will be one of the moments of the season, and he has earned it.

Beyond the title: what to watch in Mexico City

• Russell’s practice pace. Friday’s long runs will show whether Mercedes have understood his Austin problem or whether it was specific to that circuit.
• Hadjar’s Saturday form. Starting third in Austin was his strongest qualifying in some time. Turning grid position into points is the next step if Red Bull are to beat McLaren.
• RB’s grip on fifth. RB F1 Team have 102 points, 33 clear of Alpine. Liam Lawson’s ninth in Austin kept the momentum going, while Arvid Lindblad finished 12th after starting 14th.
• Audi’s recovery drives. Gabriel Bortoleto climbed from 21st to 13th in Austin. Audi sit eighth on 23 points, seven behind Haas.
• The back of the field. Williams (12 points) and Aston Martin (seven) are closely matched near the bottom, and Alonso dropped from 12th to 16th in Austin.
• The Abu Dhabi finale. Another headline music act has been added to the season-closing weekend. Whether that weekend hosts a title decider or a champion’s celebration will most likely be settled on Sunday in Mexico City.